The forecast was made on the slow recovery of the global economy in general and the dim picture of Vietnam's key export markets in particular within this year, said Le Dinh An, director of the centre.

The forecast can be translated to the total export turnover of this year of about 62.7 billion US dollars, nearly the same value with that of 2008, said An.

Previous estimates by the government of Vietnam said that the country would see this year's export turnover grow by three percent over that of last year.

In the first seven months of this year, Vietnam's export turnover saw a year-on-year decrease of 13.4 percent to about 32.3billion US dollars, according to the General Statistical Office of Vietnam.

The government of Vietnam and its relevant agencies would have to pull out much effort in export activities in the last five months, even when the country sees export growth rate of zero percent as forecast, said An.

An also said that the worst scenario of Vietnam's export performance this year is that the country would see a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 in total export turnover to 58.7 billion US dollars this year.

To boost export, An proposed three measures including further expanding the trading band of dong and the US dollars to six percent from the current five percent, diversifying the use foreign currencies in export activities and providing more subsidised loans to local exporters.

Xinhua - August 19, 2009