Three scenarios for Vietnam's 2012 economic growth
Three possible scenarios for the country's economic growth this year were unveiled yesterday by the National Committee for Financial Supervision.
In the first scenario, which is considered "a good one," Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will reach 6 to 6.3 percent, while inflation is restricted to 8 to 10 percent. The state budget's overspending in 2012 is around 4.8 percent of GDP.
With a bright outlook on the global economy, and the stable economic development of the country's major exporting markets such as the US and Japan, Vietnam's export turnovers are expected to rise by 12 - 13 percent, while imports post a 13-14 percent increase this year.
The trade deficit would be equal to 11-12 percent of total export revenues. The rate recorded last year was 9.9 percent.
In the second premise, or the "average scenario," the country's GDP growth would stand at 5.6 to 5.9 percent, with the state economic sector accounting for up to 37 percent of the total social investment, and the private sector, 41 percent.
With state budget overspending expected to be 4.8 percent of GDP, the government debt would top 59.2 percent GDP.
The National Committee for Financial Supervision said this is the most likely scenario, as the expected growth is close to the country's real potential.
Finally, in the worst situation, with the global economy likely to be in a depression, Vietnam's economy would also be greatly affected, in terms of both economic and export growth.
Under such assumptions, the committee said Vietnam's GDP would only reach 5.2 - 5.5 percent, and government debt would be around 60.4 percent of GDP.
"In case of a real global economic depression, Vietnam's economy will be adversely affected not only in 2012, but also years afterwards," concluded the committee.
Tuoi Tre - January 11, 2012